Estimation of Average and Trend Terms : Estimation of Average and Trend Terms – The simplest possible form of the deterministic part of y(k) is given by where yd represents the average or the mean value of yd(k), bk represents the `trend’ term that grows linearly with k and e(k) represents the error of modelling the complete load using the average and the …

Estimation of Time Series Prediction : Estimation of Time Series Prediction – If yd(k) is subtracted from the sequence y(k), the result would be a sequence of data for the stochastic part of the load. We have to identify the model for ys (k) and then use it to make the prediction ys(k+j). A convenient method for this is based on the …

Estimation Techniques of Periodic Components : Estimation Techniques of Periodic Components — The deterministic part of the load may contain some periodic components in addition to the average and the polynomial terms. Consider for example the curve shown in Fig. 16.2 which gives the variation of the active power supplied by a power utility over a period of two weeks. It is observed …

Forecasting Methodology : Forecasting Methodology may be divided into three broad classes. Techniques may be based on extrapolation or on correlation or on a combination of both. Techniques may be further classified as either deterministic, probabilistic or stochastic. Extrapolation Extrapolation techniques involve fitting trend curves to basic historical data adjusted to reflect the growth trend itself. With a trend curve the forecast is obtained …

Introduction to Load Forecasting Technique : Introduction to Load Forecasting Technique – Load forecasting plays an important role in power system planning, operation and control. Forecasting means estimating active load at various load buses ahead of actual load occurrence Planning and operational applications of load forecasting requires a certain ‘lead time’ also called forecasting intervals. Nature of forecasts, lead times and applications …

Kalman Filtering Approach : Kalman Filtering Approach – The time series approach has been widely employed in dealing with the load forecasting problem in view of the relative simplicity of the model forms. However, this method tends to ignore the statistical information about the load data which may often be available and may lead to improved load forecasts if utilized properly. In …

Long Term Load Prediction : Long Term Load Prediction – If the load forecasts are required for planning purposes, it is necessary to select the lead time to lie in the range of a few months to a few years. In such cases, the load demand should be decomposed in a manner that reflects the dependence of the load …